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Sure, Blu-Ray might not become completely mainstream because DVDs still work. Personally, I don't see much of a difference in graphics from Blu-Ray and DVDs to warrant purchasing a Blu-Ray player.
This guy's watching too many sci-fi movies.
But who knows. As Zero said, it's all speculation at this point.
In the meantime, Blu-Ray is comfortably here to stay.
Besides, like everything with technology, people want to keep making things smaller and smaller but at a certain point it just gets impractical. Like Cell phones for instance. At a certain point they get so small they're too fragile or hard as hell to use. Personally, if movies were that small I'd be worried about losing them, and also, how would you be able to show off your sweet movie collection? A bunch of lousy thumb drives? Count me out.
So you go and buy a movie on that memory stick, Take it home and pop it into whatever to start watching. My tv has a usb port and SD card port in it so you never know....
Even if Memory sizes that are big enough to hold Hd content were available, the prices would be considerably high in comparison to a Bluray disc, also not everyone may have Turbo speed broadband to download Hd content to begin with.
I live in Belgium and I have limited downloads per month. Don't think that'll change any time soon. Does he even take into account that Internet speeds and ISPs are different all around the world?
Also, won't this basically ruin group-related (like families/friends) movie-watching? In my opinion (and I'm sure I'm not the only one), I find it much more enjoyable and cozy sitting in a couch watching a movie with friends rather than hanging around some computer screen.
The mentality of this guy is based solely on loners and those off with good internet speed. If America and Japan turn out this way, fine, but there are still a lot of regions that aren't nearly so cybercrazed and enjoy watching a high-quality movie from time to time.
Its hard to predict the future though I personally dont think it will be the end of Blu-Ray anytime soon especially with there sales preditions and profits to come from it.