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Is GTA IV the start of a downfall for next gen gaming?

Wagner James Au thinks that next gen gaming is no longer a driving force. On June 7th, according to VGChartz, GTA 4 sold 9 million copies worldwide, but GTA: San Andreas sold over 20 million copies, while GTA 4's sales are already dropping and the game took over 100 million dollars to make! The game couldn't even boost next gen console sales and Au seems to think that if GTA 4 can't sell consoles, no game can.
I think it’s safe to say that the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over. Why? As of the week ending June 7th (the most recent tally available), just over 9 million copies of the highly touted Grand Theft Auto IV had been sold worldwide for the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 combined, according to VGChartz.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004’s GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies. With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise’s latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total. What’s more, it cost a record $100 million to develop.

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  • 1 thumbs!
    Akira_EX | June 24, 2008
    While the gist is generally true, there's too many holes in the argument.

    The glaring one, first of all, is the use of VGChartz as a reputable source.
    • 0 thumbs!
      iLLmatic | June 24, 2008
      So many people fall back on the "lack" of credibility of vgchartz. If they have none, then could you tell me what sites are credible for numbers?
  • 5 thumbs!
    joshthegreat | June 24, 2008
    SA sold 20 million copies... Yeah, and it's been out for like 4 or 5 years.
    • 0 thumbs!
      kik36 | June 24, 2008
      Ain't that the truth!! Sometimes basic math eludes people.....especially those with big mouths and opinions to share.
    • 1 thumbs!
      iLLmatic | June 24, 2008
      It also debuted during the latter half of a system that sold 120 million units, but people love to stand out in the crowd with no real purpose other than to get on top of their virtual soapbox.
  • 0 thumbs!
    X_MANBEARPIG_X | June 24, 2008
    A lot of people are still playing their PS2s anyway, but as soon as they upgrade I reckon GTA IV will be on their list of games to buy. And MGS4 sold a lot of PS3s, so it doesn't really make sense.
  • 0 thumbs!
    DarkLordAkuma | June 24, 2008
    I thought to be honest that their was more hype and such for GTA4 then SA, maybe someone told everyone else that the game is actually quite boring
  • 0 thumbs!
    pwned227 | June 24, 2008
    I'm sure it will increase over the summer people will have summer jobs and actually be able to afford the high prices of games.
  • 3 thumbs!
    bbb7002004 | June 24, 2008
    I think a few ideas are missing from this argument. For one, the fact that there are over four times as many PS2 owners than there are owners of 360 and PS3 also had an effect on sales. The market is much, much smaller at this time, and thus sales are reduced. Also, Many of GTA SA's sales were due to the fact that GTA SA did things games had never done before and attracted a much broader audience than just the hardcore adopters of the PS3 and 360 so far. A lot of people bought SA so they could shoot cops and run over hookers, not because it was a technical marvel with its open world design and a good game for fans of the series. In a way, it was a lot like Rock Band and Guitar Hero, because it attracted a following of both hardcore and casual players. GTA4 did not appeal to this audience, however, who are more interested in the above mentioned guitar games and Wii to worry about GTA, since they had already experienced what it had to offer in SA.

    Also, casual games have always been in the industry. Gamers have always had to wade through piles of licensed crap to find the high budget games, and I don't see that changing either way for a long time.
  • 1 thumbs!
    SvR2008 | June 24, 2008
    No, this is only the PS3's first year, GTASA was released when nearly every gamer had a PS2, in about 3 years time when more people own the console games will sell more. You cant expect the PS3 to sell more in its first year than the PS2 in its 5th year.
  • 0 thumbs!
    Final Blade | June 25, 2008
    I find it funny that no one has mentioned the fact that GTA SA was a Timed Exclusive. Which means it can benefit the console more, GTA4 was multiplatform since the release, its not going to increase consoles like that.
  • 0 thumbs!
    ChiroVette | June 25, 2008
    Joshthegreat, there is no way IV is going to come anywhere near 21+ Million copies sold. I agree with iLLmatic that San Andreas was released near the late middle of the PS2's lifetime.

    You want the truth? In retrospect, oddly enough, I believe GTA IV would have sold a lot more if Rockstar had considered a dumbed down version of it for simultaneous release on the PS2. The truth is that I saw nothing in the gameplay of GTA IV, even the in depth cell phone, internet and TV, that could not have also crossed backward to the PS2. All they would have had to do was take down the graphics several notches, in my opinion. Either way, the PS3 and 360 combined are not as prevalent in homes as the PS2 is, even to this day. So I think the article is operating under a flawed premise, that this is somehow indicative of the new console failing. The fact is that PS3 is only 18 months old and the 360 a mere year older than that. When San Andreas was released, the PS2 was 4 years old already.

    Also, the present economy in the States is slower than last gen, which is also negatively impacting at least on this market. All in all, as the prices of the 360 and PS3 drop more and more, they will start to become more inherently popular. Keep in mind that when San Andreas was released, a PS2 cost $200.00.
    • 0 thumbs!
      Final Blade | June 25, 2008
      Chiro I don't believe the Euphoria engine could be able to play on the PS2. Its a brand new engine and if GTA4 was going to be made on the PS2, the physics would just be absolute shit. Hell the game itself would just completely blow. I believe the engine is only capable on the newer consoles.
  • -1 thumbs!
    GTA Legend | June 25, 2008
    I totally agree with ChiroVette, the two games were released at twp very different times, thus making it harderto compare also that not to many gamers have a next-gen console.
  • -1 thumbs!
    Bandito | June 28, 2008
    ^^agreed too.
    two diffrent times/.
  • 0 thumbs!
    mb 1 | July 02, 2008
    well I guess any game that takes out planes to add in useless online dating isn't gonna be that great. why R* why?

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